Before I wrote about politics or built election models, I played poker professionally. What really fascinates me about gambling is the mentality that drives this behavior – a way of thinking that unites a group I call “the river.”
River is a massive ecosystem of like-minded people that includes everyone from low-stakes poker pros to crypto kings and VC billionaires. It is a way of thinking – analytical, abstract, competitive, contradictory – and a way of life. Most “Riverians” are not rich and powerful, but rich and powerful people are much more likely to be Riverians.
I call the following “The 13 Habits of Highly Effective Risk Takers.” River Quantitative risk takers and physical risk takers – astronauts, deep sea explorers, NFL players – have these traits in common. Based on my research, I think there is a certain tenacity in people who seek out risk and successfully face it. How much do you share with them?
Successful risk takers remain calm under pressure
Keeping calm when others lose is a rare virtue – and it is essential for a winning gambler. It doesn't matter how well you perform in everyday situations – you'll never reach the top of your craft if you start suffocating when the pressure is on.
they have courage
In poker and sports betting, most players lose money. Staying on top requires careful balancing. Overconfidence can be fatal in gambling, but playing poker against the best is not for the faint of heart.
they have strategic sympathies
They put themselves in their opponent's shoes—but don't mistake this for a touchy-feely kind of empathy. In psychological studies, there is a negative relationship between systematic thinking—at which Riverians are skilled—and empathic behavior. Strategic empathy comes into play a lot in poker – which is both a mathematical game and a people game.
They are process oriented, not result oriented
They play the long game. “Don't be results oriented” is a mantra inherent in many poker players. Yes, results are what matter in the long run, but one nice thing about the river is that our compensation ultimately depends on objective measures.
they take shots
They're clearly aware of the risks they're taking – and they're comfortable with failure. In an episode of the American version of OfficeThe extremely stupid boss, Michael Scott, misuses a quote from hockey player Wayne Gretzky: “You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.” Something remains to be said for this.
They have a lift or turn attitude
They hate mediocrity, and they know when to quit. The cardinal sin of poker is that most players hold it too often. There are three basic actions in poker: calling, folding, raising. People press the call button too much. They call because they want to gamble, but although players call when they should fold, they also call when they should raise.
they are ready
They make good intuitive decisions because they are well trained – not because they “wing it.” What angered private equity investor and inventor Victor Vescovo Top Gun: Maverick Tom Cruise insists you should improvise your way out of a stressful situation: “The best military operations are the ones that are very boring, where things go exactly according to plan. No one is ever in any danger,” he said. “You want to minimize the risks. Whereas top Gun It looks great in the movie, that way you don't try and achieve that goal.”
They pay more attention to detail
They understand that attention is a scarce resource. In poker, one of the unusual features of the game is that most of the time, you have nothing to do, at all – just wait a lot. You need to carefully check your mental bandwidth, conserve energy but be ready to spring into action.
they are adaptable
They are good generalists, taking advantage of new opportunities and responding to new threats. I call this personality type the Fox. Think about the statement of the Greek poet Archilochus: “The fox knows many things, but the elephant knows one big thing.” Foxes are on the lookout for opportunities, wary of complacency and becoming too attached. This is a habit to which there are some exceptions. In particular, startup founders need to be completely focused on one big thing and be prepared to see it through for a decade or more.
they are good guessers
They are Bayesians, comfortable weighing their intuition and working with incomplete information. Does the difference between 90 percent and 93 percent really matter?
They try to stand out, not fit in
Independence of mind and purpose is the hallmark of a high achiever.
they are deliberately contradictory
He has theories about why and when conventional wisdom is wrong. There is a difference between freedom and contradiction. If I choose vanilla and you choose chocolate because you like chocolate more, you are being independent. If you choose chocolate because I chose vanilla, you are contradictory. River people may be accused of being contradictory, when in fact they are independent. If I do the traditional thing 99 percent of the time, and you do it 85 percent of the time, you'll seem like a rebel by comparison—but in reality you're still going with the flow.
They are not motivated by money
They're not saints, but poker players are different for two reasons. First, they are so fiercely competitive that money serves mostly as a way of keeping score; And second, gambling with such high stakes requires a certain insensitivity.
adapted from On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, By Nate Silver.