Biden administration introduces new export restrictions this week Control AI progress globally And ultimately prevent the most advanced AI from falling into the hands of China. The rule is the latest in a series of measures taken by Donald Trump and Joe Biden to keep Chinese AI in check.
With leading AI figures including OpenAI Sam Altman and anthropic Dario Amodei The Trump administration could take things further, warning of the need to “defeat China” in AI.
Paul Triolo He is a partner at DGA Group, a global consulting firm, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a senior advisor to the University of Pennsylvania's Penn Project on the Future of US-China Relations. alvin graylin is an entrepreneur who previously ran operations in China for Taiwanese electronics firm HPC. Together they are tracking China's AI industry and the impact of US sanctions. In an email exchange, Triolo and Graylin discussed the latest sanctions, Silicon Valley rhetoric, and the dangers of viewing global AI as a zero-sum game.
This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.
what do you create new AI diffusion rules From the US government this week, which aims to curb China's access to AI?
Paul Triolo: Generally, it focuses on clusters of high-performance computing. The rule also controls proprietary model weights for the most advanced “Frontier” models but it is unclear how performance levels will be determined, and most open weights [freely shared] AI models are tuned and improved by users, including leading AI companies in China.
Complex regulations and unclear compliance conditions create considerable uncertainty in the long-term plans of both medium and major American and Western hyperscalers.
For hyperscalers like Google, Microsoft, AWS and Oracle, the rule introduces significant issues, including slower or more complex international expansion, new compliance and legal costs, impacts on global R&D, and uncertain enforcement requirements.
How have previous measures, including sanctions first imposed by the Trump administration, affected the AI industry there?
Paul Triolo: US export controls have slowed China down, but sanctions at higher levels have unified the Chinese government's will and efforts to become more self-reliant. It has invested tens of billions to help local players gain capabilities technologically or at scale in key areas, resulting in significant changes within the semiconductor industry and the use of advanced hardware to develop frontier AI models. Its capacity to support has increased.
Chinese AI developers have become very good at leveraging legacy AI hardware from Western companies and gradually integrating domestic alternatives into their development process. Chinese companies will continue to innovate in the AI hardware and software stack, if not at the pace of their Western counterparts.
Why do you think so many people in Silicon Valley are now talking about the need to “defeat China” in AI?
Paul Triolo: There is a growing disconnect between conservative venture capitalists, mostly based in Silicon Valley, and technology companies whose business models depend on publicizing the China threat. It's a troubling combination that combines the threat of China, personal gain, and pressure against regulation of advanced AI. It also portrays US-China competition around AI as zero sum, which is particularly dangerous.