The next tropical weather threat could form in the Caribbean this week. Will it move to Florida's Gulf Coast?

last day of 2024 Atlantic hurricane season It's November 30, but as we approach that finish line, other thoughts are on the minds of the Caribbean with a potential tropical system forming.

National Hurricane Center is forecasting 90% chance of formation in the western Caribbean over the next two days. With a high confidence level of this disturbance, storm hunters took off from Biloxi, Mississippi at 12 noon ET on Wednesday to investigate the area and determine the strength and structure of the developing weather system. Another flight is scheduled for Thursday morning for additional monitoring.

Due to a low pressure system in the western Caribbean, conditions are favorable for the formation of a tropical system. Forecasting models take current environmental factors with historical data to calculate “spaghetti plots” where systems can track. Each model uses different calculations to determine how the forecast tracks and the consensus output from those models.

The strength of this system is determined by how much fuel it has – being in a favorable environment over warm water, low wind shear, no blocking fronts – and how long it lasts under those favorable conditions e.g. Factor. No matter its strength, forecast models suggest it will remain in the western Caribbean through the weekend before moving north and into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

After entering the Gulf, the consensus of forecast models is that it will take a right-hand turn and head toward Florida by the end of next week. If it reaches tropical storm strength, Next name in the list Sara is there.

A lot can happen between now and next week and conditions can change rapidly, but areas like Jamaica and the Cayman Islands need to prepare for heavy rain over the next few days. Florida residents should continue to monitor the forecast as updates arrive.