The unemployment rate may be near historically low levels, but thousands of Americans out of work are taking longer to find new jobs, a sign of cracks in the once-hot labor market as employers resort to higher borrowing. Are continuing to face the impact. Cost.
About 40% of the 7 million people who were out of work In October, or about 2.84 million people, had been looking for work for more than 15 weeks, a 20% increase from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. More than half of those job seekers have been looking for new employment for more than 27 weeks, or almost half a year.
Julia Pollack, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told CBS MoneyWatch that job searches in the labor market today have become increasingly common as companies pause hiring, particularly in certain industries such as technology and professional services. That's a far cry from the tough years of 2021 and 2022, when Americans changed jobs at higher rates in search of better pay and more gratifying work, a trend called “great resignation,
Pollack said the job market has weakened since the pressure of the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy, the central bank, raised lending rates to the highest point in 23 years to combat inflation. While inflation has declined sharply over the past two years and the Fed has begun Rate cut in SeptemberThe burden of higher borrowing costs has pushed consumers back from buying cars and homes, hurting key sectors of the economy, Pollack said.
The job market today reflects “less hiring, less firing and less job-switching,” Pollack said. “It's a 'great migration' kind of situation – if you have a job you love it's great, and if you don't have a job it's not good.”
Employers hired 12,000 workers in October, a jobs report that marks the slowest month for hiring since December 2020. As the anemic numbers show, businesses were hit by hurricanes Milton and Helen as well as labor disputes such as the Boeing machinists' strike.
Ahead of the November 5 election, a majority of Americans dim view The strength of the US economy, a factor partly credited with helping President-elect Donald Trump claim victory. While much of voters' anger focused on inflation, the job market also played a role in their views, with the unemployment rate falling to a pandemic low of 3.4%, and some workers saying their wages not done yet Are facing the brunt of inflation.
However, voters' views about the economy have changed since the election. has improvedEspecially among Trump supporters, the CBS News poll found.
november jobs report
On Friday, the Labor Department will release a November jobs report, with economists estimating 207,000 new hires last month, according to financial data firm FactSet. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.1%, near a 50-year low.
In Friday's data, Pollack said, “The broad thread in the labor market is a slow, gradual cooling, and the question is whether it will be clear even after taking these quirks into account.” Referring to the recovery of the blow.
Employers cut nearly 60,000 jobs last month, a 27% increase from a year earlier, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The group said the most layoffs occurred in the automotive and technology industries last month.
“The automotive industry is currently facing significant challenges, including Potential tariffs impacting US automakers With foreign factories, increasing competition from Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, and Changes in government subsidies for EVs” Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement.
Job market and interest rate cuts
The slow labor market helped influence the Federal Reserve's decision to begin cutting rates in September, the central bank's Rate cut for the first time in four yearsThe Fed cut rates for the second time in November, and most economists are predicting another cut at the central bank's Dec. 18 meeting.
According to analysts at BNP Parbas, the job market may be in a period of uncertainty partly due to the elections.
“In September, an Atlanta Fed/Duke University survey found that 30% of businesses were postponing investment plans due to uncertainty about the then-upcoming election,” analysts wrote in a recent research report. month.
He added, “While we suspect that pre-election uncertainty has played a role in the recent freeze on appointments, this report (due on December 6) may be too early to unequivocally open up previously postponed appointments. “Uncertainties regarding tariffs, immigration, and fiscal policy will remain.”
Still, some economists are lowering their forecasts about the pace of the Fed's expected rate cuts in 2025, and citing President-elect Trump's plans to impose tariffs, cut taxes and deport millions of illegal immigrants. Giving, which may happen if enacted. re-inflation,