We live in an age of uncertainty. Not only because of global threats to society, but also because many people face unprecedented insecurity at an individual level, especially the younger generation. None of us know what's going to happen, and we may as well face it. And this is the first lesson in making predictions: don't predictMeaning, don't just guess what will happen. instead, embrace uncertainty And turn it into an opportunity. This way:
Think fast and slowly about uncertainty
Uncertainty is “conscious awareness of ignorance”. It is a personal relationship with anything we do not know – we may be unaware of what is going on at the moment, or what will happen in the future. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman identified two broad ways of thinking; Using our rapid, unconscious, gut reactions, or moving through a problem slowly and deliberately. It's okay to think quickly about the future most of the time: while we're driving or choosing a movie to watch. But for big decisions, it's better to take your time.
cherishing possible future
The first step in slowly thinking about the future is to imagine how things might go. Organizations can create scenarios reflecting optimistic and pessimistic outcomes, and “red TeamDeliberately thinking about what could go wrong. The UK Ministry of Defense also employs science-fiction writers to bring some serious imagination to possible futures.
Personally, you may adopt a “red-team mentality”, in which you consciously criticize our standard approach, whether you are someone who looks for the good side, or expects the worst side.
The problem with using only words to describe uncertainty
Vague terminology about uncertainty is easily misinterpreted. It's easy to say that something “might” or “might” happen, or even that it has a “likelihood” of occurring. But what do these words really mean? In 1961, the CIA was planning the Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba to topple the revolutionary government of Fidel Castro, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff considered the probability of success to be only 30 percent – that is, a 70 percent chance of failure.
This was reported as a “fair” opportunity, which he believed would be interpreted as “not very good”. But President Kennedy read the wording optimistically and approved the invasion, which was a complete failure and pushed Cuba even further under Soviet influence.
Marking our ignorance
Events such as the Bay of Pigs disaster have encouraged intelligence agencies to align words with bold numbers. For example, if any Britain's intelligence service claims that an incident is “likely,The official interpretation is between 55 percent and 75 percent probability. A similar scale is used in climate science, where a “Very likely” Incidence means 90 percent to 95 percent.
As individuals, we can try to rank possible futures based on their likelihood, and then rate them on some rough scale, say that getting a particular job is a “2 out of 10” event. With some imagination, we can think about all our possible future trajectories like spaghetti; And you will get a job in about 20 percent of these.
What makes a good prophet?
“Superforecasters” can assess good probabilities for the future, where “good” means (a) they are “calibrated” so that when they say “70 percent chance”, those events will occur about 70 percent of the time , and (b) they are “discriminatory”, whereby events are given high probabilities of occurring. They are generally open to new knowledge and happy to work in teams, have insight into their own thinking and all their biases, and are willing to accept uncertainty, make errors, and change their minds. There is humility. they are similar Isaiah Berlin So-called “foxes” are more willing to embrace new evidence than “hedgehogs” who are stuck in the same mindset.
accepting the unknown
Donald Rumsfeld immortalized “the known knowns, the known unknowns, and the unknown unknowns” – things that were beyond our imagination and not even thought of. When we acknowledge this possibility, it is known as “deep uncertainty,” when we cannot catalog possible futures even with a red-team mentality. However, Rumsfeld did not include “known unknowns” – those assumptions we make without thinking. These can be the most dangerous fallacies, and that's why we need critical friends to help us get out of our fixed tramlines.
be prepared to be surprised
In 1650, Oliver Cromwell's army was camped outside Edinburgh, and he was trying to persuade the Scottish Kirk to withdraw its support for the return of Charles II. Cromwell wrote, “Does then everything you say absolutely agree with the Word of God? I beg you, in the heart of Christ, consider it possible that you may be mistaken. This appeal was ignored. Cromwell defeated the Scots at the Battle of Dunbar.
“Cromwell's Law” This means that you must think like a fox and have the humility to consider at all times that it is possible that you could be wrong. By keeping a small margin of error in mind, you can quickly absorb surprising new information.
role of luck
Things may turn out well for you, or they may turn out badly, largely due to factors beyond your control, i.e., fate. Philosophers have identified three main types. Constitutional destiny: How you were born, your time and place in history, your parents, your genes, your inherent characteristics and early upbringing. This is extremely important—you have to make the best use of the hand you were given at birth. Circumstantial luck: being in the right place at the right time, or being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Resultant luck: How things happened for you at that very moment.
But it's not all out of your control – “lucky” people take advantage of opportunities, have positive expectations, and are resilient to things that go wrong.
living with uncertainty
Being uncertain is part of being human, and some of us want to know what we're going to get for Christmas, what the outcome of a recorded football match will be, or whether it was possible we were going to die. Uncertainty is inevitable, and we can react to awareness of unknowability in different ways – we may feel anxious or excited, hopeful or fearful, depending on the circumstances and our personal tolerance for not knowing.
We cannot avoid uncertainty. But with a little slow thinking we may be able to embrace it, be polite to it, and even enjoy it.