Many places are increasingly becoming unliveable. and around a quarter Humanity is already struggling with drought and related food insecurity. by 2070One-fifth of the planet may become too hot for normal human life, leading to 3.5 billion To move people. Displacement can only occur due to sea level rise 410 million people globally by 2100.
We are set to see the largest and most rapid movement of people in human history. A new policy framework will be required. In 2025, we will begin to move from reactive to proactive, and embrace the imperative of a climate-driven transition.
Not surprisingly, climate-driven migration will hit poor communities and communities of color the most. Those with the least resources to adapt, who did the least to create the climate crisis, will bear the brunt. think about 33 million people displaced by floods 9.4 million acres of agricultural land will be damaged or destroyed in Pakistan in 2022. Think about how the history of racism in America increases climate risks—formerly redlined neighborhoods More than 25 percent of houses are at high risk of flood. But no one, no place, is immune—think of the heat waves that hit Europe in 2022 More than 61,000 people diedWhere very few people have air conditioning because it was never needed. At the rate at which humanity is spewing greenhouse gases, it may all just be a dress rehearsal.
To date, most climate migration has occurred within nations, but as the areas affected by extreme weather expand, this will need to change. We have to be vigilant about keeping xenophobia at bay, while acknowledging the brutal injustice that occurs because countries with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions, such as the Pacific Islands, are the first to be hit by floods.
Where will people go? How will this be managed? One thing is certain: ignoring the problem will not make it go away; On the contrary, it will result in chaos. At international, national and local levels, we will begin to develop policies to fill the existing legislative and regulatory void, such as restricting housing construction in high-risk areas. An example of this is the state of New Jersey Buying out nearly 200 property owners In Woodbridge Township – one of the areas hardest hit by flooding from Hurricane Irene in 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012 – to ban new construction development and return the land to nature.
Other initiatives and policies will include preparing low-risk areas to become receiving communities for those who must relocate. In the Pacific, one of the lowest greenhouse emissions regions in the world, entire countries are at risk of being submerged. The nation of Kiribati has already done so bought land in fiji As part of their plan to eventually relocate people as needed due to sea level rise. In 2023, 18 Pacific Island countries endorsed it Pacific Regional Framework on Climate Dynamicswhich outlines a number of priorities such as regional cooperation on cross-border transfers to ensure that human rights are respected, developing guidelines in consultation with transferred communities and coordinating support between countries for cross-border migrants .
In 2025, at the level of individuals and families, we will see those who have the means begin to actively relocate. already, 11 percent Americans are considering moving to escape the effects of global warming, and nearly 75 percent are hesitant about buying a home in areas with high climate risks such as wildfire. 30 million homes The lower 48 US states are at risk of being affected by wildfire).
We will also continue to see the insurance market play an important role in these changes, as more and more high-risk locations become uninsurable. For example, in 2023, National Flood Insurance Program Its pricing structure was changed for the first time since its inception in 1968. As a result, the average cost of flood insurance has increased in many places – in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, it has increased even more than 1,000 Percentage.
In 2025, continuing to rebuild in the same locations after extreme weather events, standard practice to date, will be widely considered absurd. It's not that people want to move, leave the communities and ecosystems they love and call home; This is what they must do. Cultures and immigrants will begin to change to adapt to this new reality. Many of them will be faced with a serious question: What does home really mean in the age of climate change?