In 2025, there will be a definite uptick in AI and geopolitics, as world leaders increasingly understand that their national interests are best served through the promise of a more positive and cooperative future.
The years following ChatGPIT in AI discourse could be described as somewhere between a gold rush and a moral panic. In 2023, at the same time as record investment in AI, tech experts including Elon Musk and Steve Wozniak published an open letter calling for a six-month moratorium on training AI systems more powerful than GPT-4 While others compared AI to “nuclear war” and a “pandemic”.
This has clearly clouded the judgment of political leaders, pushing the geopolitical conversation about AI to some troubling places. At my research organization, the AI and Geopolitics Project at the University of Cambridge, our analysis clearly shows a growing trend toward AI nationalism.
For example, in 2017, President Xi Jinping announced plans for China to become an AI superpower by 2030. Sugar “New Generation AI Development PlanIt aims to see the country reach a “world-leading level” of AI innovation by 2025 and become a major AI innovation hub by 2030.
The CHIP and SCIENCE Act of 2022 – a US ban on exports of semiconductors – was a direct response, designed to benefit US domestic AI capabilities and undercut China. In 2024, following an executive order signed by President Biden, the US Treasury Department also published draft rules to ban or restrict investment in artificial intelligence in China.
AI nationalism depicts AI as a battle to be won rather than an opportunity to be exploited. However, those who support this view would do well to learn deeper lessons from the Cold War beyond the notion of an arms race. At that time, the United States, with an emphasis on becoming the most advanced technological nation, managed to use politics, diplomacy, and statecraft to create a positive and ambitious vision for space exploration. Successive US governments also managed to gain support in the United Nations for a treaty that protected space from nuclearization, specified that no country could colonize the Moon, and ensured that space would be accessible to “all It was the province of mankind.
There has been a lack of AI in the same political leadership. However, in 2025 we will start to see a shift towards cooperation and diplomacy.
The AI Summit in France in 2025 will be part of this change. President Macron is already moving his program away from a strict “security” framework of AI risk, and focusing, in his words, on more practical “solutions and standards.” In a virtual address to the Seoul summit, the French President made clear that he wants to address a wide range of policy issues, including ensuring society actually benefits from AI.
The United Nations has also released its plans aimed at a more collaborative global approach in 2024, while recognizing the exclusion of some countries from the debate around AI.
Even the US and China have started to join in temporary diplomacyEstablishment of a bilateral consultation channel on AI in 2024. While the impact of these initiatives remains uncertain, they clearly indicate that, in 2025, the world's AI superpowers will likely pursue diplomacy over nationalism.