Tropical Storm Sara forms in the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Sara formed in the Caribbean on Thursday, becoming the 18th named hurricane. named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The system, formerly known as Tropical Depression 19, developed in the western caribbean earlier this week and intensified while traveling westward toward Central America.

Sara has winds of 40 mph and is located about 50 miles northeast of the Nicaragua-Honduras border, moving toward the west, according to the National Hurricane Center. Said In an update at 1 p.m. ET. A weather system is considered a tropical storm when its wind speed increases up to at least 39 mph,

The storm is expected to remain in the Caribbean through the weekend and slowly move into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. After that, its path is less clear. CBS News meteorologist Nikki Nolan said many models are now trending toward it disappearing after entering the Gulf of Mexico or over Mexico, but many are still aiming for Florida.

“Florida residents should keep a close eye on forecast updates as they come in,” Nolan advised.

Atlantic hurricane season Officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with activity usually peaking between mid-August and mid-October. An average season brings 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which predicted the 2024 season would produce “above average” numbers.

What is the projected path of Tropical Storm Sarah?

Tropical Storm Sara could potentially bring devastating rainfall to parts of Central America. Forecasters warn that heavy rainfall of between 10 and 20 inches is possible in Honduras early next week, with some locations receiving up to 30 inches.

Forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said they expected “life-threatening” flash flooding in northern Honduras and that it could last through the weekend. The hurricane center also warned of potentially devastating landslides caused by the storm, especially in the mountainous region near and along the Sierra la Esperanza on the country's northeastern coast. He predicted these conditions would persist throughout the weekend.

The rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua are expected to see between 5 and 10 inches of rain as the storm passes through that area, but up to 15 inches is possible.

Governments throughout Central America have issued various precautions and warnings as people prepare for the impact of Sara. Vast portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are under either a hurricane watch or tropical storm warning, according to the hurricane center.

Will the tropical storm become a hurricane?

It remains to be seen whether Sara will develop into a hurricane when expected to make landfall near the east coast of Honduras on Friday or Saturday, but forecasters said the storm will be “near or powerful as a hurricane” if it does.

a tropical storm becomes a storm When its sustained winds reach at least 74 mph, it becomes a Category 1 on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.

Forecasters also cautioned residents of Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula to prepare for possible impacts from Sara as early as next week.

Will Tropical Storm Sara hit Florida?

After entering the Gulf of Mexico, some forecast models suggested the storm could turn right and move toward Florida by the end of next week, though Nolan said conditions could change quickly. Other models had the storm potentially moving into the central part of the Gulf and possibly dissipating.

Hurricane hunters were flying over the area Thursday to check the strength and structure of the developing weather system.

Forecasting models take current environmental factors with historical data to calculate “spaghetti plots” where systems can track. Each model uses different calculations, and the forecast track is the consensus output from those models.

“It is too early to determine what impact the system may have on portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba during the middle part of next week,” the hurricane center said Thursday. “Residents in these areas should regularly monitor forecast updates.”

Contributed to this report.