What happened after the 2024 elections and what's next?
November 7, 2024 · 2:30pm EST
The 2024 elections were a party downer, and voters called the Democrats on the carpet. It will take several days for the final results to be released and perhaps several weeks to gain a full understanding of what happened, but a few more points can be made in the wake of the election.
history making
Donald Trump will be the first person to be elected president since Grover Cleveland was defeated in the late 1800s. Trump is also the oldest person ever elected president (he is older than Biden in 2020). And Trump is the first convicted felon to be elected president.
It was not a matter of surprise.
Unlike 2016, no one was making firm announcements about who would be elected president in 2024. National polling showed a tied race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, and the candidates were neck-and-neck in seven swing states. Only fools were denying Trump's victory.
We've even written that if the polls shifted a few points in one direction and one candidate won in toss-up states, it could feel like a landslide. Trump may not be able to defeat him, but he's getting close. Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada have been called for Trump by at least one major media entity. Arizona continues to excel. Without those states, Trump is at 295 Electoral College votes. (He received 304 in his 2016 win.)
But it was kind of a surprise.
What was surprising was the breadth of Trump's victory across so many demographic areas. His standing among almost all types of voters has improved compared to four years ago. Trump gained among various minority voters, young voters, men, etc. The media may try to point to a specific demographic as the catalyst for Trump's victory, but it was broader.
Before Election Day, it seemed as if Trump was politically trapped. He received 46.1 percent of the vote nationally in the 2016 victory, 46.8 percent of the vote nationally in the 2020 defeat, and 46.8 percent of the vote in the 538 national polling average. But in the current numbers, Trump is closer to 51 percent. In 2004, President George W. Following Bush's re-election, he may be the first GOP presidential candidate to win the popular vote in 20 years. He won heavily in big states like Texas and Florida, and came surprisingly close to a blue victory. States like New Jersey, where Harris leads by only 4 points.
GOP Senate
As expected, Republicans gained control of the Senate. They needed to get two seats for majority and they have an advantage of at least three seats. It could go further with wins in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada in races that have not been called by the Associated Press. With those key races still outstanding, the final could fall within our potential estimate of a Republican gain of 2-4 seats or the Republican gain could be slightly higher than that.
Making history in Congress
Democrats Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland and Lisa Blunt Rochester of Maryland will become the first two Black women to serve together in the U.S. Senate. And Democrat Sarah McBride of Delaware will be the first transgender member of Congress.
The fight for the House continues
Nearly half of the 65 House races rated as competitive by Inside Elections have not yet been called by a major media outlet. Up to this point, the race had gone as expected with a few exceptions. Pennsylvania Representatives Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright lost re-election in races rated as tilting Democratic heading into Election Day.
With more than 20 races yet to be called, the overall House range could fall within our likely projection of anything from a Republican gain of one seat to a Democratic gain of nine seats. Democrats need to gain four seats for a majority.
Using AP Data Compiled by reporter Jamie DupreeRepublicans have won or are leading in 221 seats, while Democrats have won or are leading in 214 seats. This would not be a net change in the House and would be within our pre-poll estimates. But Republicans may still gain a seat or two.
Who is to blame?
Even though Harris is on track to be hit hard by Trump, it would be shortsighted of Democrats to place the blame squarely on the vice president's shoulders.
While Harris's shift from Biden at the top of the ticket breathed new life into Democratic victory chances, she was still troubled by Biden's unpopularity and voters' sourness over the economy and the direction of the country. About 63 percent of voters said the country was going in the wrong direction, while only 27 percent said it was going in the right direction. RealClearPolitics National AverageIt is difficult for the current party to overcome these figures.
Furthermore, Trump benefited from collective amnesia across the country. according to Gallup in late SeptemberMost Americans believed their families were worse off now than they were four years ago. This is notable because the country was still struggling with pre-vaccine pandemic conditions, Unemployment It was 6.7 percent in October 2020 while it was 4.1 percent last month and in November 2020, 1,200 Americans were dying from Covid-19 every day.
But voters' perceptions matter more than reality. And there's no question in my mind that Trump benefited from the distance between the end of his presidency and the 2024 elections. How will I know? If Americans had been so happy with Trump's first four years in office, he would not have lost to Biden by 7 million votes.
Democrats should take this opportunity to think and have a broad conversation about the party brand, what the party stands for, what it stands for, and who will lead the party forward. Because right now there seems to be a gulf between the Democrats and the majority of voters.
changing alliance
Yes, Trump made improvements among all types of voter groups and was elected with perhaps the most diverse coalition of voters for a Republican in recent history. But I'm not sure this is a permanent change for both parties, but rather a unique dynamic with Trump. Once Trump is gone, I am not sure this coalition will be easily transferable to another candidate.
We have seen over the years that anyone who tries to be Trump fails. They seem mean or silly compared to the original. But we won't really know until the election takes place without Trump on the ballot and a large portion of the conversation in the White House.
At the very least, Trump's victory will encourage other politicians to emulate his aggressive and aggressive rhetorical style. Even though voters didn't particularly reward Trump because of his words, they certainly didn't punish him.
Trump is Trump.
Trump's resilience is unmatched in American politics, past and future. His pre-established brand as a successful outsider virtually supersedes any wrongdoing as voters have a very low view of politicians and government and view American celebrities as offensive. There is no other politician who can withstand more than 90 federal indictments, more than 30 felony convictions, winding speeches and awkward stage moments.
Even though he has been a candidate and politician for almost a decade, at a time when voters are dissatisfied, Trump is seen as a change agent and disruptor. Change is the norm, as DC political analyst Bruce Mehlman explained. it is Sixth consecutive election since 2014 In which at least one of the House, Senate, or White House changes hands.
Mandate?
“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” Trump said on stage Wednesday morning, celebrating his victory. Claiming the mandate is a rite of passage for the winning party.
But while his victory was overwhelming, I'm not sure most voters understand what mass deportation looks or feels like. Or that voters want the January 6 rebels forgiven. Or for Republicans to reform the Affordable Care Act. Or using the Justice Department against political enemies. Or get rid of fluoride in water. Or ban vaccines.
More voters trusted Trump as a leader than Harris, but the results felt more like a rejection of the Democratic brand than a reflection of Trump's willingness to pursue his most vindictive goals.
looking towards 2026
While the dust is still settling on the 2024 elections, the baseline has been set for the 2026 midterm elections. Trump's surprise strength in blue states could put a target on the back of Democrats in New Jersey and Illinois, including potential freshman Nelly Pouw in New Jersey's 9th District. Biden would have got 26 points of votes in that seat in 2020, but Pou is leading by 5 points. Rep. Tom Suozzi also can't sit back after defeating a less-funded GOP opponent by 2 points as Trump likely carried his district based on his increased strength in Nassau County.
That said, Trump suffered a landslide defeat for Republicans in the 2018 midterms, and his plans for a second administration could provoke an even more significant political backlash, so Democrats will also be aggressive — perhaps not in Florida or Texas, however. Where the GOP gerrymanders and favorable political trends have decimated Democratic hopes in two consecutive cycles.
In the Senate, Democrats face another challenging cycle, and depending on how the runoff races in Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania go, the party could walk away from the majority. Maine and North Carolina are probably their best pickup opportunities, and in a favorable cycle, Iowa, Texas and Alaska could develop into interesting races. But the party will be on the defensive in Minnesota, Michigan and Georgia.
Perhaps the most interesting race of the next cycle will be in Ohio, where there will be a special election to replace Vice President-elect J.D. Vance. Tuesday's results showed that Democrats are the underdogs in the Buckeye State, but the political climate could be very different in a year in a second Trump administration.
With the Senate potentially out of reach for Democrats, the focus of the 2026 elections will be on the House.
The system worked.
As always, we conducted free and fair elections. It is noteworthy that the only time in recent history when claims of election rigging were made and allegations of widespread fraud were made, two people lost: Trump in the 2020 presidential election and Republicans in the 2022 gubernatorial election in Arizona. Kari Lake.
Republicans were sowing the seeds of distrust in the system and the election for weeks leading up to November 5, and Trump was even claiming that the vote was rigged in Pennsylvania on election night, but when he won, Like all those worries disappeared.
Republicans, on the other hand, have tried to claim that their election integrity efforts or tantrums about fraud are on par with the Democrats'. But it is not so at all. No serious Democrat is raising any doubts about the 2024 outcome, and Harris graciously conceded her point to Trump on Wednesday afternoon.
Similarly, the two parties are not on the same page when it comes to protesting the election results. There was apparently some concern that Democrats would riot if Harris lost, which, as evidenced by the dilapidated buildings and fencing in DC, was always unlikely, and it never materialized.
Death of voting?
Did Trump gamble in the middle of the election? Maybe, and maybe not. While polls clearly showed that a Trump victory was possible, it appears that many polls have underestimated his support for a third consecutive cycle.
At the same time, it was the lack of polling that caused Trump's surprisingly strong performance to be “missed.” If we had more polling in Illinois or New Jersey or other Democratic places where Trump performed better, at least some of those polls would have pointed to Trump's stronger Republican performance than usual.
As we look toward 2026, it's important to remember that polling was more accurate in 2018 and 2022 — especially when Trump wasn't on the ballot — but pollsters will likely be doing some introspection on the methodology once again. .